Quantification of the Impact of Temperature, CO2, and Rainfall Changes on Swedish Annual Crops Production Using the APSIM Model

Ongoing climate change is already affecting crop production patterns worldwide. Our aim was to investigate how increasing temperature and CO 2 as well changes in precipitation could affect potential yields for different historical pedoclimatic conditions at high latitudes (i.e., >55°). The APSIM model used simulate the productivity of four annual crops (barley, forage maize, oats, spring wheat) over five sites Sweden ranging between 55 64°N. A first set simulations run using site-specific daily weather data acquired 1980 2005. second then incremental precipitation, levels, corresponding a range future scenarios. All simulation sets were compared terms risk failure. Projected trends showed that barley oats will reach maximum increase yield with 1°C 1980–2005 baseline. optimum wheat similar, except northernmost site (63.8°N), where highest obtained 4°C temperature. Forage maize best performances increases 2–3°C all locations, site, simulated reached 5°C increase. Changes temperatures main factors explaining productivity, ~89% variance explained, whereas explained ~11%. At decreasing failure temperatures. results this modeling exercise suggest cultivation should, some degree, benefit from expected coming decades, provided little no water stress affects their growth development. These might be relevant agriculture studies regions similar latitudes, especially Nordic countries, support general assumption should have positive impact on latitudes.